These are our 2025 Oscar predictions | CBC Arts (2025)

Obviously things are a bit too early to be certain of much of anything, althoughwe must say thatour predictions this time last September went 17/20 on the acting nominations and 9/10 for best picture. (Which perhaps says more about how predictable awards season was last year than our prognosticatorytalents, but still).

Click to jump to each category:
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Original Screenplay
Best Adapted Screenplay

Best Picture

Last year, the race seemed pretty set by the end of September, and all signs pointed to a very Barbenheimer Oscars, with Poor Things surging as its primary competition. And that's basically how things panned out — though obviously with a bit less Barbie than many had hoped.

This year, things feel drastically less clear. A few films certainly seem locked in for best picture nominations (Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez), but it's not easy to imagine anything actually winning just yet. Add to that a lack of clarity as to whether so many films are even contenders (Gladiator II, Wicked, A Complete Unknown, Here) and if some will even come out this year (TIFF People's Choice winner The Life of Chuck, the latter of which doesn't even have a distributor yet), and I would be kinda shocked if the below predictions were actually correct come Oscar night.

Current predictions (in alphabetical order):
Anora, Blitz, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Gladiator II, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

But don't count out (in order of most likely to join the lineup):
The Room Next Door, A Real Pain, September 5, A Complete Unknown, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Piano Lesson, Hard Truths, Juror No. 2, Saturday Night, Wicked, Here, Queer, The Substance

Best Director

Best Director

I must warn you that one of this season's big narrative is likely going to be one we've sadly heard too many times before: the directing races will be dominated by cis men, like Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) and Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two). That's not to say each of those men aren't worthy. I'd just love it if they also found room for the truly exceptional work of The Substance director Coralie Fargeat or I Saw The TV Glow director Jane Schoenbrun, even if the genres of their respective films (easily two of my favourites this year) aren't typically considered "Oscar fare."

Current predictions:
Anora (Sean Baker), Blitz (Steve McQueen), The Brutalist (Brady Corbet), Dune: Part Two (Denis Villenueve), Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard)

But don't count out:
Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross), The Room Next Door (Pedro Almódovar), Conclave (Edward Berger), Gladiator II (Ridley Scott), The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Mohammad Rasoulof), The Substance (Coralie Fargeat),Sing Sing (Greg Kwedar), Challengers (Luca Guadagnino), I Saw The TV Glow (Jane Schoenbrun), All We Imagine As Light (Payal Kapadia), Here (Robert Zemeckis)

Best Actress

After decades of the trans community having to watch as so many cis actors walked away with Oscars for playing trans roles (see: Jared Leto, Hilary Swank, etc.), it finally seems like we're about to witness a historic and very overdue first when Karla Sofia Gascón becomes the first openly trans actor to ever receive an Oscar nomination for her powerhouse performance as the titular character in Emilia Pérez. And she'll almost certainly be joined by another breakout performer playing a film's title role, Mikey Madison, who is mesmerizing in Anora. Beyond that? It's one mother of a race for the last three slots, with Amy Adams, Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Angelina Jolie, Nicole Kidman, Demi Moore, Julianne Moore, Saoirse Ronan and Tilda Swinton all in contention. If it were up to me, I'd expand this category to 10 and then let every single nominee give a 10-minute speech.

Best Actor

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Significantly less crowded than its female counterpart, this race seems to already have three nominees locked in with Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) and Adrien Brody (The Brutalist). And if Timothée Chalamet pulls off playing Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown (which remains a complete unknown because no one's seen it), he's extremely poised to join them. Which sets things up to be a competition between three extraordinarily talented actors who have never won an Oscar (Domingo, Fiennes and Chalamet) and … someone whose previous Oscar win hasn't exactly aged well (Brody, who has not been nominated since he won over 20 years ago for Roman Polanski's The Pianist). It's still uncertain whether Brody has the momentum to go two for two, but I already feel sorry for his winless competitors if he does. One thing's increasingly for certain though: Joaquin Phoenix is not about to go deux for deux for playing the Joker. If the film's bad reviews don't stop him, outrage in the industry for how he totally screwed over Todd Haynes sure will.

Current predictions:
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)

But don't count out:
Sebastian Stan (A Different Man), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), Jharrel Jerome (Unstoppable), Paul Mescal (Gladiator II), John David Washington (The Piano Lesson), Ethan Herisse (Nickel Boys), Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Elliott Heffernan (Blitz), Tom Hanks (Here), Joaquin Phoenix (Joker: Folie à Deux)

Best Supporting Actress

Could this category feature an unprecedented battle of the pop stars if Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux) and Ariana Grande (Wicked) all end up getting nominated? Unlikely, though it's fun to imagine — and still a remote possibility. Much more likely is that Gomez alone makes the cut, joining a very small club of pop stars who went on to manage Oscar nominations for acting (a club Gaga is already in, alongside Cher and Barbra Streisand). The biggest thing standing in Gomez's way is splitting votes with her co-star Zoe Saldaña, who has a much bigger role in Emilia Pérez (the lead role, in my opinion) and could very well end up being the frontrunner here.

Current predictions:
Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Saoirse Ronan (Blitz), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

But don't count out:
Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Joan Chen (Dìdi), Carrie Coon (His Three Daughters), Toni Collette (Juror No. 2), Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Jennifer Lopez (Unstoppable), Fernanda Montenegro (I'm Still Here), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Connie Nielsen (Gladiator II)

Best Supporting Actor

If Denzel Washington ends up getting his 10th Oscar nomination for his performance in Gladiator II (a film no one has seen yet, though the trailer feels especially promising when it comes to Washington's performance), it would tie him with Spencer Tracy as the fifth most nominated actor in all of Oscar history. The only four people with more than 10 nominations? Meryl Streep (21), Katharine Hepburn (12), Jack Nicholson (12) and Bette Davis (11). That's some pretty wild company. Even wilder, though, is the possibility that Washington is nominated at the same ceremony as not one but two of his sons: John David Washington for acting in The Piano Lesson, and Malcolm Washington for writing and directing it.

Current predictions:
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Stanley Tucci (Conclave), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

But don't count out:
John Magaro (September 5), Mark Eydelshteyn (Anora), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Ray Fisher (The Piano Lesson), Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson), Adam Pearson (A Different Man), Brian Tyree Henry (The Fire Inside), Yura Borisov (Anora), Drew Starkey (Queer), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), John Lithgow (Conclave), Hamish Linklater (Nickel Boys), Austin Butler (Dune: Part Two), Pedro Pascal (Gladiator II)

Best Original Screenplay

But don't count out:
Blitz (Steve McQueen), The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Mohammad Rasoulof), Saturday Night (Jason Reitman and Gil Kenan), Dìdi (Sean Wang), His Three Daughters (Azazel Jacobs), September 5 (Tim Fehlbaum, Moritz Binder and Alex David), The Substance (Coralie Fargeat)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Denis Villeneuve was famously snubbed for directing the first Dune, but he did receive a nomination for adapting its screenplay. With Dune: Part Two garnering an even better reception than the first, one would imagine he's a lock here, along with Peter Straughan for Conclave and the quartet of men — Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence (Divine Eye) Maclin and John (Divine G) Whitfield — who collectively based the Sing Sing script on the experiences of those in the Rehabilitation Through the Arts program at the Sing Sing Correctional Facility, where both Maclin and Whitfield had themselves been incarcerated.

Current predictions:
Conclave (Peter Straughan), Dune: Part Two (Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts), Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes), The Room Next Door (Pedro Almodóvar), Sing Sing (Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence "Maclin, John Whitfield)

But don't count out:
Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard), The Wild Robot (Chris Sanders), The Piano Lesson (Virgil Williams, Malcolm Washington), A Complete Unknown (Jay Cocks, James Mangold), Hit Man (Richard Linklater, Glen Powell), Nightbitch (Marielle Heller), Gladiator II (David Scarpa), Nosferatu (Robert Eggers), Queer (Justin Kuritzkes)

Check back for updates to these predictions as we slowly but surely make our way to the 97th Academy Awards on March 1, 2025. Additional categories will be added each month as the season continues.