Oscars 2025: Some Contenders Rise, Others Fall in Still Unknown Awards Season Race (2024)

VarietyAwards Circuitsection is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars,Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated byVarietysenior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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Oscars 2025: Some Contenders Rise, Others Fall in Still Unknown Awards Season Race (1)

Weekly Commentary (Updated Oct. 10, 2024): The buzz from the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto film festivals is beginning to shape the landscape for this year’s awards season, offering early indicators of which films may dominate the race.

Oscar campaigning is a high-stakes business, with studios investing millions of dollars to push their films toward a coveted Academy Award nomination — or better yet, a win. However, the nature of a film’s awards campaign hinges on two critical factors: box office performance and critical reception. This creates a two-tiered system.

In one tier, you have the movies that receive all-hands-on-deck support, with a full-court press, jetting stars and directors to various festivals and industry events. These films, backed by a well-oiled promotional machine, have a singular goal: bringing home the gold. In the other tier, you have films where talent relations teams are simply going through the motions, hoping to generate enough buzz to garner any love from niche voter groups, to make important partners and filmmakers satisfied and without the studio footing the bill for extensive promotion and demanding glam.

Take Warner Bros., for instance. At some point, executives were undoubtedly having conversations about a potential major Oscar campaign for Todd Phillips’ musical sequel, “Joker: Folie à Deux.” However, after tepid responses at Venice and even harsher critiques six weeks later — paired with a disappointing $37 million box office haul against a near $200 million budget — those plans have likely changed. Now, the studio’s focus will almost certainly shift to the grandiose epic “Dune: Part Two,” which has already earned widespread praise and a solid box office performance.

“It’s not that much of a burden when the filmmaker and talent live in the same reality you do,” one awards strategist tells Variety. “If they’re kind and reasonable — emphasis on kind — they can overcome shitty reviews and a bad box office. But some people want it [Oscars] no matter what we tell them. They want you to make miracles and perform exorcisms. I can’t do that.”

So, what happens when a studio finds itself with a key filmmaker, like Todd Phillips, who is crucial to their business but whose latest movie hasn’t delivered? Like the famous saying goes: “Fake it until you make it.”

Studios often attempt to salvage Oscar chances for box office flops by shifting focus. They may emphasize technical categories — like costume design, sound, or visual effects — rather than jockey for the top categories like best picture and director. Sometimes, a specific performance or screenplay might also receive extra attention if a well-known industry figure is behind it. See John Williams’ score nom for “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.” Even if the film is financially underwhelmed, a targeted campaign can help keep it in the conversation.

Strong reviews remain the foundation for a successful campaign effort. Critics help shape buzz, influencing voters long before a film hits theaters. An acclaimed movie can build a narrative around being an “artistic triumph,” a story Oscar voters love. Winners like Kathryn Bigelow’s “The Hurt Locker” or Tom McCarthy’s “Spotlight” thrived on their acclaim despite their relatively modest box office returns.

Yet, glowing reviews alone aren’t always enough to drive an Oscar push.

Independent distributors have long fought to keep their movies in the awards race, even when they’re universally praised. Look at IFC Films’ “Boyhood,” which secured a best picture nom despite its indie roots but couldn’t get past “Birdman.” On the flip side, the small but mighty A24, with “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” leveraged both critics and media buzz to sweep its respective season, showcasing how a film can punch above its weight when strategic campaigning meets public momentum.

For films saddled with poor reviews, damage control becomes the name of the game. Campaigns for these movies work overtime to counter harsh critiques and negative media narratives. The goal isn’t necessarily to secure an Oscar but to prevent the film from becoming a career liability. But, every so often, a film defies the odds and secures unexpected nominations, as was the case with Andrew Dominik’s bizarre Marilyn Monroe biopic “Blonde.” Despite the film’s critical thrashing, star Ana de Armas, with the unyielding support of Netflix, became a mainstay during awards season, earning best actress nods from the Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, and the Oscars.

In other words, expect the unexpected in an Oscar race.

Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on theVarietyAwards Circuit:Oscars.

Top 4 projected nomination leaders (films): “Gladiator II” (11); “Dune: Part Two” and “Emilia Pérez” (9); “The Brutalist” (8); “Blitz” (7)

Top 4 projected nomination leaders (studios): Netflix (15); Paramount Pictures (12); Warner Bros. (10); A24 and Sony Pictures Classics (9)

The 97thOscarswill be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.